Home > Research and Education > Project stories > The BALTIC100 project: for a better understanding of th…

The BALTIC100 project: for a better understanding of the past and a more certain view of the future  

On April 11th, 2024, the world found out for the first time what the gross domestic product of the Baltic States has been in the last 100 years, starting from 1920. On this day, the BALTIC100 team will reveal the main results of the project to the public, as well as demonstrate how to use the database created during the project, where all interested parties will be able to obtain comprehensive information and data about the demography, agriculture and economy of the Baltic States since 1920.  

Knowing one’s history and being able to tell others about it is a matter of self-respect for every nation. Up until now, the Baltic States were the only ones in the European Union whose gross domestic product information was extremely fragmentary in the last hundred years. Researchers from other countries have tried to partially fill this white spot. One could also try to use the highly biased information available in the historical sources from the time of the existence of the USSR. The most unclear was the period of occupation of the USSR. It is skillfully used by the modern propaganda of the Russian Federation, presenting the presence of the Baltic States in the vicinity of the USSR as an indisputable success story for our nations, contrasting it with a significantly more unsuccessful stage of development, which began after the restoration of independence in 1990-1991. Now we have another strong counterargument that is based on data based on research results. We can surely say: yes, the data confirm a rapid growth of GDP in the first decades of the occupation of the USSR, but this growth was not based on our national interests, and the following decades of stagnation proved the inadequacy of the economic model imposed by the USSR on the Baltics. Also, we can now prove with data that the real rates of economic growth during the occupation of the USSR were significantly slower than they were assumed to be during the existence of the USSR.  

We could only do this work together  

After reading the lines above, the question naturally arises: if calculation of GDP in the Baltic States was so important to you, why did you accomplish it only now? The answer is relatively simple: it was too complex and labor-intensive to be done by just one country with its scientific capacity and available funding.  

The BALTIC100 project has perfectly demonstrated the benefits of cooperation. Using the expertise of scientific institutions representing Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Norway, we combined it and achieved the result in a relatively short time. Not only the collection of data and the calculation of GDP, but also the fact that all this work was done according to a unified methodology, must be highlighted as a success. The University of Vilnius undertook the calculation of GDP, the University of Tartu carried out source analysis and criticism, while Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences coordinated the work and created the database. The involvement of the Norwegian School of Economics was significant – in Norway, the GDP has already been calculated for the last 200 years and they are currently working on the 18th century. The involvement and advice of Norwegian scientists in difficult moments was irreplaceable.  

The collection of historical data in small countries is specific. Much of the data is unpublished, found in archival collections and only in the national language. Working in Estonia without mastering the Estonian language would be very difficult, the same can be applied to Latvia and Lithuania. Much of the data available on the period of occupation of the USSR was in Russian and was not published. During the first year of the project, the COVID-19 pandemic came as an unpleasant surprise. This made the archives of the Baltic States inaccessible and some of the planned works were delayed. Part of the data collection was postponed to a later time, and at this moment of congestion, the opportunity to attract a researcher from Ukraine – Yuliia Kovalenko – came as an important solution. She was actively involved in the work of the project, helping collect and systematize data on the period of occupation of the USSR in Latvia and Lithuania. This made it possible to expand the number of working fields and data series in the database.  

The ability to think interdisciplinary as a condition for a successful research work  

Historians, economists, mathematicians and IT specialists worked side by side in the project. Each area has its own specifics, habits, work traditions. Implementation of this project undeniably broadened horizons of the participants. Representatives of the humanities and social sciences now have a better understanding of the basic principles of database construction, specific nuances of how data should be collected and stored for further use for other programming purposes. On the other hand, IT experts have gained experience working with scientists from other fields with a different perspective.  

This was the first experience when the project team worked in this composition. There are differences between branches of science, between scientists and between institutions. Project face-to-face events were organized in all institutions, the project team was introduced to the history and future of all institutions. Rectors of Vilnius University and Norwegian School of Economics, management of faculties were able to free some time to meet the team. When starting the project, we found out that various institutions were interested in it. Economists, statisticians, media policy experts and sectoral policy planners. We were supported by the national archives, statistical offices, and the media. We saw how high the demand is for popular science articles on history, where thematic issues of importance to modern society are also integrated.  

Looking into the future  

In March 2024, the institutions representing BALTIC100 have submitted a joint project application “People and technologies for the sustainability of rural areas” in the Horizon Europe program (HORIZON-CL6-2024-COMMUNITIES-01-2). The budget of the possible project will be EUR 6 000 000. Austrian, Belgian, Portuguese and Israeli institutions have been attracted as partners. This move confirms that the team is willing to work together in the future. There are at least three possible directions of research: integration of past quantitative data into a model for simulating future scenarios; Calculation of GDP for a historically older period – the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century; in-depth comparative analysis of regions and small places. All these topics are relevant, and we really hope that we will be successful in one of the calls for projects and will be able to continue our work. We have proved our ability to achieve results in the BALTIC100 project, and we thank the financiers of the Baltic Research Program for this. We are ready to work together in the future.  

List of scientific publications developed and published during the project 

1. Norkus, Z., Jasilionis D., Grytten, O., Mežs, I., Klesment, M. (2022). Mortality Transition in the Interwar Baltic States: Findings from Cross-Country Comparison of New Life Tables. Scandinavian Economic History Review. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03585522.2022.2106301 

2. Grytten O. H., Norkus Z., Markevičiūtė J., Šiliņš J. (2022). Can the economic growth of interwar Latvia be estimated by contemporary national accounts? Baltic Journal of Economics. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1406099X.2022.2097370?needAccess=true  

3. Norkus, Z., Grytten, O., Šiliņš, J., Klimantas, A. (2022). Benchmarking Latvia’s Economy: A New Estimate of Gross Domestic Product in the 1930s. Cliometrica. Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11698-022-00260-x (accepted for publication on October 28, 2022). 

4. Klimantas, A., Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O. H., Šiliņš, J. (2023). Reinventing perished “Belgium of the East”: new estimates of GDP for interwar Latvia (1920 – 1939). Cliometrica, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-023-00275-y. The previous title “Estimation of the GDP of Interwar Latvia (1920-1939)” has been changed in the course of revisions. 

5. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O. H, Krūmiņš, G. (2023). Demographic Continuity as a Factor in the Post-Communist Restorations. Filosofija. Sociologija. https://www.lmaleidykla.lt/ojs/index.php/filosofija-sociologija/article/view/5123/4430 

6. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O., Krūmiņš, G. (2022). New Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Benchmark Estimate for Latvia in 1935. November 28^th-29^th 2022, Rzeszów, Poland. Proceedings of the Central European Congress of Economic History: Modernization Processes in “Younger Europe”. Published by the Rzeszów University Press. 

7. Norkus, Z., Grytten O. H., Markevičiūtė, J., Šiliņš, J. (2023). A Long-run Perspective on Latvian Regional Gross Domestic Product Inequality, 1925-2016. In: Baltic Journal of Economics. 

8. Norkus, Z. (2022). Handbook of Economic Nationalism, Chapter 6: Varieties of currency nationalization and denationalization, pp. 81-99. Abstract available at: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/book/9781789909043/book-part-9781789909043-14.xml (the chapter is published in a printed book, only summary is available online). 

9. Klimantas, A. (2023). Lithuanian economy, 1919-1940: stagnant but resilient. The first interwar GDP time-series estimates and their implications. Scandinavian Economic History Review, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03585522.2023.2259909 Published 

10. Norkus, Z. (2024). The Great Restoration: Post-Communist Transformations from the Viewpoint of Comparative Historical Sociology of Restorations. Brill, International Comparative Social Studies, vol. 56, https://brill.com/display/title/63872  

11. Norkus, Z. (2024). Post-Communist Transformations in Baltic Countries. A Restorations Approach in Comparative Historical Sociology. Springer, https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-39496-6  

12. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O. H., Ambrulevičiūtė, A. (2023). Regional Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) Disparities in the Interwar and Restored Independent Lithuania: A Long-Run Cross-Time Comparison. In: Lithuanian Historical Studies (submitted).  

The Baltic Research Programme is implemented with the support of EEA grants within the framework of programme “Research and Education”, which is implemented by the Ministry of Education and Science and the Latvian Council of Science. The total funding of the programme is 8,676,084 euros, of which the state budget co-financing is 15% or 1,301,413 euros and the EEA co-financing is 85% or 7,374,671 euros. In the Baltic research programme, 9 research projects and 5 small cooperation projects are implemented in Latvia. 

The Baltic Research Programme’s project “Quantitative data about societal and economic transformations in the regions of the three Baltic States during the last hundred years for the analysis of historical transformations and the overcoming of future challenges” is implemented by Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences (Latvia), Norwegian School of Economics (Norway), Vilnius University (Lithuania), University of Tartu (Estonia).